Saddam likely believed that a swift, decisive military victory would not only eliminate the threat from the east but also solidify his leadership across the Arab world. The 1975 Algiers Agreement, brokered by Washington and Baghdad, had temporarily settled the issue by granting Iraq full control of the waterway, forcing Iran to relinquish its historical claims.
Iran Revolutionary Government Goals and Regional Tensions
The overthrow of the Shah, a long-time Iraqi ally and a secular bulwark against pan-Arabism, replaced a predictable neighbor with a revolutionary theocracy led by Ayatollah Khomeini. This profound misjudgment of both Iran’s will to fight and the international reaction to an unprovoked invasion proved to be the fatal flaw in his calculation.
Kurdish Insurgency and Regional Fears Another contributing factor was the Kurdish rebellion simmering in the northern mountains of Iraq. Understanding the causes of the Iran–Iraq war requires looking beyond the immediate invasion of September 1980 to examine the volatile mix of border disputes, the seismic shock of the Islamic Revolution, and the strategic miscalculations that led Saddam Hussein to believe he could achieve a quick victory.
The Revolutionary Government's Goals and Motivations
With the Shah gone, the new Iranian government initially hoped to continue this support to keep pressure on Saddam. Shattered Borders and Enduring Territorial Disputes The most immediate and persistent cause of the conflict was the unresolved border dispute along the Shatt al-Arab waterway.
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