This profound misjudgment of both Iran’s will to fight and the international reaction to an unprovoked invasion proved to be the fatal flaw in his calculation. However, this agreement was deeply resented in Tehran, viewed not as a fair resolution but as a humiliation imposed by the Shah’s regime.
How the Kurdish Factor Removed the Pretext for War
The 1975 Algiers Agreement, brokered by Washington and Baghdad, had temporarily settled the issue by granting Iraq full control of the waterway, forcing Iran to relinquish its historical claims. He viewed himself as the natural leader of the Arab world, a role he felt was being challenged by the new Iranian regime.
With the Shah gone, the new Iranian government initially hoped to continue this support to keep pressure on Saddam. Fearing a wider regional war and wary of being seen as an aggressor, Iran largely ceased its support for the Kurds just as the Iraqis were preparing their invasion.
Kurdish Factor Removing Pretext for Regional Conflict
For Saddam Hussein’s secular Ba'athist regime, this represented an existential threat to its authority and the very secular foundation of Iraq. The revolutionary rhetoric of exporting the Islamic revolution provided Saddam with a potent justification for preemptive action, framing the war not just as a border dispute, but as a necessary defense against ideological subversion.
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